Dan, you're correct in much of this, though I suspect that some of the current research coming out of the area of complexity theory, particularly from Santa Fe Institute, may remedy this in the area of economics in the future. There is also the issue of researchers like John Ioannidis http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124 which is well covered by this general science article: http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble or by some of the popular writings of researcher like Nassim Nicholas Taleb.