Testing out quill for someone who was having problems using it to post to WordPress.Syndicated copies to:
📖 Read Loc 261-443 of 6508 of The Master Switch: The Rise and Fall of Information Empires by Tim Wu
The section here on the election of Rutherford B. Hayes as president with significant help by the communication incumbent (Western Union) of the time sounds eerily like the influence which Facebook likely had on the election of Donald J. Trump. The more I read this the more I’m scared and can’t wait for yet another disruption of communication technology.Syndicated copies to:
📖 Read pages 43-51 of Complexity and the Economy by W. Brian Arthur
literally, as in Keynes’ (1936) phrase, taking into account “what average opinion expects the average opinion to be.”
…perfect rationality in the market cannot be well defined. Infinitely intelligent agents cannot form expectations in a determinate way.
This type of behavior–coming up with appropriate hypothetical models to act upon, strengthening confidence in those that are validated, and discarding those that are not–is called inductive reasoning.
We see immediately that the market possesses a psychology. We define this as the collection of market hypotheses, or expectational models or mental beliefs, that are being acted upon at a given time.
the first(?) mention of a genetic model in the book
📖 Read pages 30-43 of Complexity and the Economy by W. Brian Arthur
Chapter 2 is a nice piece on the El Farol Problem which is a paradox which “represented a decision problem where expectations (forecasts) that many would attend [the El Farol bar] would lead to few attending, and expectations that few would attend would lead to many attending: expectations would lead to outcomes that would negate these expectations.”
Zhang and Challet generalized this problem into the Minority Game in game theoretic form.
There are two reasons for perfect or deductive rationality to break down under complication. The obvious one is that beyond a certain level of of complexity human logical capacity ceases to cope–human rationality is bounded. The other is that in interactive situations of complication, agents cannot rely upon the other agents they are dealing with to behave under perfect rationality, and so they are forced to guess their behavior. This lands them in a world of subjective beliefs and subjective beliefs about subjective beliefs. Objective, well-defined, shared assumptions then cease to apply. In turn, rational, deductive reasoning (deriving a conclusion by perfect logical processes from well-defined premises) itself cannot apply. The problem becomes ill-defined.
This passage, though in an economics text, seems to be a perfect statement about part of the problem of governing in the United States at the moment. I have a thesis that Donald Trump is a system 1 thinker and is generally incapable of system 2 level thought, thus he has no ability to discern the overall complexity of the situations in which he finds himself (or in which the United States finds itself). As a result, he’s unable to effectively lead. From a complexity and game theoretic standpoint, he feels he’s able to perfectly play and win any game. His problem is that he feels like he’s playing tic-tac-toe, while many see at least a game as complex as checkers. In reality, he’s playing a game far more complex than either chess or go.
The overall problem laid out in this chapter is an interesting one vis-a-vis the issues many restaurant startups face, particularly in large cities. How can they best maximize their attendance not only presently, but in the long term while staying afloat in very crowded market places.
The level at which humans can apply perfect rationality is surprisingly modest. Yet it has not been clear how to deal with imperfect or bounded rationality.
Chapter 3 takes a similar problem as Chapter 2 and ups the complexity of the problem somewhat substantially. While I understand that at the time these problems may have seemed cutting edge and incomprehensible to most, I find myself wondering how they didn’t see it all from the beginning.Syndicated copies to:
📗 Read pages i – xxix of An Introduction to Transfer Entropy: Information Flow in Complex Systems by Terry Bossomaier, Lionel Barnett, Michael Harré, and Joseph T. Lizier
From page vi:
The structure of the book is a bit like stone fruit, with a soft wrapping of a hard core, …
Transfer entropy is hard to calculate from real data.
I love that they provide a “List of Key Ideas”, a “List of Open Research Questions”, and a “List of Key Results” in the opening along with the traditional sections of symbols used, acronyms, list of tables, etc. More texts of all stripes should be doing this!Syndicated copies to:
📖 Read pages 57-103 of Professional WordPress: Design and Development 3rd Edition by Brad Williams, David Damstra, and Hal Stern
The review of core had some resources I’m sure I knew about and have even used before, but somehow forgotten from long disuse. The quick review of the loop was useful to have again particularly as I delve into some themeing work these past few weeks.
The examples they provide are pretty solid from a pedagogic standpoint.Syndicated copies to:
I must say this turkey in my car smells delicious. Must get an air freshener like this.
Test to see if superfeedr picks this up
Spent some time practicing my hiragana and basic Japanese with Memrise, which has both really quite a lovely webapp as well as a mobile app. こんにちはSyndicated copies to:
Twitter is coming next, but I need to tweak some lists to pare things down.
This feels so 2008, and I mean that in the best way.Syndicated copies to: