👓 If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? | Harvard Business Review

Read If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? (Harvard Business Review)
Why you should use percentages, not words, to express probabilities.

Highlights, Quotes, & Marginalia

Phil Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, who has studied forecasting in depth, suggests that “vague verbiage gives you political safety.”  

This result is consistent with analysis by the data science team at Quora, a site where users ask and answer questions. That team found that women use uncertain words and phrases more often than men do, even when they are just as confident.  

A large literature shows that we tend to be overconfident in our judgments.  

The best forecasters make lots of precise forecasts and keep track of their performance with a metric such as a Brier score.  

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👓 Where Boys Outperform Girls in Math: Rich, White and Suburban Districts | New York Times

Read Where Boys Outperform Girls in Math: Rich, White and Suburban Districts by Claire Cain Miller (nytimes.com)
A study of 10,000 school districts shows how local norms help grow or shrink gender achievement gaps.
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Chris Aldrich is reading “A guide to writing recommendation letters that aren’t sexist”

Read A guide to writing recommendation letters that aren't sexist (Quartz)
Sexism in the workplace starts long before the job has even begun.
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Chris Aldrich is reading “Do You Want to be Described as Hard Working?”

Read Do You Want to be Described as Hard Working? by Athene Donald (Athene Donald's Blog)
I visited Oxford this week to talk to the Women in Physics group, mainly made up of students and postdocs (not all of whom were women). Tea and excellent scones
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