Perhaps it’s time for a follow up conference?
NIMBioS will host an Tutorial on Uncertainty Quantification for Biological Models
Uncertainty Quantification for Biological Models
Meeting dates: June 26-28, 2017
Location: NIMBioS at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Marisa Eisenberg, School of Public Health, Univ. of Michigan
Ben Fitzpatrick, Mathematics, Loyola Marymount Univ.
James Hyman, Mathematics, Tulane Univ.
Ralph Smith, Mathematics, North Carolina State Univ.
Clayton Webster, Computational and Applied Mathematics (CAM), Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Mathematics, Univ. of Tennessee
Mathematical modeling and computer simulations are widely used to predict the behavior of complex biological phenomena. However, increased computational resources have allowed scientists to ask a deeper question, namely, “how do the uncertainties ubiquitous in all modeling efforts affect the output of such predictive simulations?” Examples include both epistemic (lack of knowledge) and aleatoric (intrinsic variability) uncertainties and encompass uncertainty coming from inaccurate physical measurements, bias in mathematical descriptions, as well as errors coming from numerical approximations of computational simulations. Because it is essential for dealing with realistic experimental data and assessing the reliability of predictions based on numerical simulations, research in uncertainty quantification (UQ) ultimately aims to address these challenges.
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) uses quantitative methods to characterize and reduce uncertainties in mathematical models, and techniques from sampling, numerical approximations, and sensitivity analysis can help to apportion the uncertainty from models to different variables. Critical to achieving validated predictive computations, both forward and inverse UQ analysis have become critical modeling components for a wide range of scientific applications. Techniques from these fields are rapidly evolving to keep pace with the increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications. This tutorial will focus on the application of these methods and techniques to mathematical models in the life sciences and will provide researchers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties and perform sensitivity analysis for simulation models. Concepts to be covered may include: probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, adaptive surrogate model construction, high-dimensional approximation, random sampling and sparse grids, as well as local and global sensitivity analysis.
This tutorial is intended for graduate students, postdocs and researchers in mathematics, statistics, computer science and biology. A basic knowledge of probability, linear algebra, and differential equations is assumed.
Application deadline: March 1, 2017
To apply, you must complete an application on our online registration system:
- Click here to access the system
- Login or register
- Complete your user profile (if you haven’t already)
- Find this tutorial event under Current Events Open for Application and click on Apply
Participation in NIMBioS tutorials is by application only. Individuals with a strong interest in the topic are encouraged to apply, and successful applicants will be notified within two weeks after the application deadline. If needed, financial support for travel, meals, and lodging is available for tutorial attendees.
The application process is now closed.
Summary Report. TBA
Live Stream. The Tutorial will be streamed live. Note that NIMBioS Tutorials involve open discussion and not necessarily a succession of talks. In addition, the schedule as posted may change during the Workshop. To view the live stream, visit http://www.nimbios.org/videos/livestream. A live chat of the event will take place via Twitter using the hashtag #uncertaintyTT. The Twitter feed will be displayed to the right of the live stream. We encourage you to post questions/comments and engage in discussion with respect to our Social Media Guidelines.
This tutorial will review the basics of theory in the field of evolutionary quantitative genetics and its connections to evolution observed at various time scales. Quantitative genetics deals with the inheritance of measurements of traits that are affected by many genes. Quantitative genetic theory for natural populations was developed considerably in the period from 1970 to 1990 and up to the present, and it has been applied to a wide range of phenomena including the evolution of differences between the sexes, sexual preferences, life history traits, plasticity of traits, as well as the evolution of body size and other morphological measurements. Textbooks have not kept pace with these developments, and currently few universities offer courses in this subject aimed at evolutionary biologists. There is a need for evolutionary biologists to understand this field because of the ability to collect large amounts of data by computer, the development of statistical methods for changes of traits on evolutionary trees and for changes in a single species through time, and the realization that quantitative characters will not soon be fully explained by genomics. This tutorial aims to fill this need by reviewing basic aspects of theory and illustrating how that theory can be tested with data, both from single species and with multiple-species phylogenies. Participants will learn to use R, an open-source statistical programming language, to build and test evolutionary models. The intended participants for this tutorial are graduate students, postdocs, and junior faculty members in evolutionary biology.
John Baez, one of the organizers of the workshop, is also going through them and adding some interesting background and links on his Azimuth blog as well for those who are looking for additional details and depth
Additonal resources from the Workshop:
- NIMBios Workshop page
- Participants list
- Workshop Agenda [.pdf download]
- Information and Entropy WordPress site
- YouTube playlist of videos
- Storify archive from the workshop ( I’ve archived much of the content and links.)
For those in attendance or participating by watching the live streaming video (or even watching the video after-the-fact), please feel free to use the official hashtag #entropyWS, and I’ll do my best to include your tweets, posts, and material into the story stream for future reference.
For journal articles and papers mentioned in/at the workshop, I encourage everyone to join the Mendeley.com group ITBio: Information Theory, Microbiology, Evolution, and Complexity and add them to the group’s list of papers. Think of it as a collaborative online journal club of sorts.
Those participating in the workshop are also encouraged to take a look at a growing collection of researchers and materials I maintain here. If you have materials or resources you’d like to contribute to the list, please send me an email or include them via the suggestions/submission form or include them in the comments section below.
- References and Journal Articles
- Related Academic, Research Institutes, Societies, Groups, and Organizations
- Conferences, Workshops, and Symposia
- Bionet.Info-Theory (Google Group/Usenet Group)
- #ITBio on Twitter